Monday, May 29, 2017

FiveThirtyEight.com: Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?

Mod: It is Memorial Day, a time when we remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice to protect the freedoms we all enjoy. And one of those freedoms is the right to remove those who behave illegally in office. Here political oddsmaker Nate Silver expounds on the possibilities.

Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? (538.com link): After a cacophonous two weeks of political news, a new sound has begun to emerge from Washington: the word “impeachment.” Following the news that President Trump may have tried to bully FBI director James Comey out of investigating Michael Flynn’s ties to Russia, Sen. Angus King of Maine, an independent, told CNN that recent allegations, if true, are already making impeachment hearings more likely. Rep. Al Green, a Democrat from Texas, became the first congressman to call for Trump’s impeachment from the House floor. And even some Republicans in blue-leaning districts, such as Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, have begun to entertain impeachment as a possibility.

This might all seem like a liberal fantasy: No president has ever been booted out of the job, and only Richard Nixon resigned under the pressure of the impeachment process.

But people putting money on the line are taking impeachment seriously. According to the prediction market Betfair, the chance that Trump will fail to serve out his four-year term is about 50 percent (!). There’s even a 20 to 25 percent probability (!!) that Trump doesn’t finish out 2017 in office, these bettors reckon.

Are those numbers within the realm of reason? It isn’t easy to forecast Trump’s odds of impeachment, or of his removal from office. There isn’t enough data to build a statistical model of it, in the way we would for an election. But we can say that there are two opposite forces tugging strongly on the impeachment rope:

- On the one side, there’s Trump’s escalating pattern of (alleged) misconduct, which increasingly reflects behavior that has been used as grounds for impeachment in the past.

- On the other side, there’s the intense partisan loyalty of Republicans, both among GOP members of Congress and among voters in the states and districts they represent.

So long as these sides are pulling with roughly equal force, Trump isn’t going to be removed from office, which would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate. But if something snaps — if Republicans have reason to think Trump has become a liability even in red states — look out. History suggests Trump could be vulnerable under such circumstances, despite the historical rarity of impeachment.

Mod: You can read a lot more on this topic by clicking on the link provided at the top.

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47 comments:

  1. This 'butter ball' 90 day wonder of a president just isn't cutting the mustard any more, more like Fake President. The sooner the better for the worlds sake.

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    1. It's like money bought him power, and now he's trying to make his power make him more money. But in business, you can pay just about anyone to shut up or go away; in government, there are just too many entities, operatives, opposers, or whatever, and Donald is just way too stupid to have understood what he's gotten himself into. Time to get rid of him - he is a hindrance to America, in a sick way.

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    2. Didn't Hillary spend more?

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    3. You need to view things in the present.

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  2. PRESIDENT CLINTON,BILL IMPEACHED.
    What is it about this scroundle and the Clinton name that eludes the left and media?
    MAGA. Memorial Day. Time to reflect on those that gave America it's freedom and Democracy.

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    Replies
    1. Trump Guy is living in the past.

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    2. Trump Guy seems to have forgotten that Donald Trump received 5 deferments from the military in order to avoid service in Vietnam. He gave us nothing.

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  3. No reason to impeach the Trump! With him in office nothing is going to get done because they will be too busy fighting amongst themselves. OR, get his butt out of there before he starts a war. It's no fun having a crazy rich fat white man trying to run the country, especially when he is so friendly with our long time enemy.

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  4. MELANIA TRUMP’S DIVORCE PAPERS SIGNED, NOT FILED, AND SETTLEMENT REACHED, CLAIMS FORMER WHITE HOUSE STAFFER
    http://www.inquisitr.com/4237101/melania-trumps-divorce-papers-signed-not-filed-and-settlement-reached-claims-former-white-house-staffer/

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  5. Europe is not having a good reaction to Trump's antics there last week.

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  6. 7:41am. Where you been? President Trump inherited the wars that continue to be fought today. 8:28am. Probably because they had to be shamed into paying for NATO agreed 2% allied forces

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    1. Europe has written America under Trump off. They feel they can no longer depend on us. Trump's visit there was a disaster for America, and a huge victory for Vladimir Putin.

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  7. President Trump is angering the right people, that's why I voted for him, and today of all days...i just can't stop smiling. Honor Memorial Day.

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    1. There are an awful lot of "right people" out there.

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    2. 9:20 I agree with you. Thank you.

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    3. So much for the "wrong people."

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    4. You ain't got no honor.

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    5. Bet 9:20 smiles when he remembers all the women groped by the sub-human he worships.

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  8. John McCain is quoted in Newsweek as saying Trump is a bigger threat than Isis.

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  9. President Trump after laying a wreath on the toumb of the unknown solidier and Vice President Pence, visit Arlington Cementary section dedicated to the War on Terror/visits with families of fallen servicemembers.

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    1. Trump had killed innocent civilians
      Remember that

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  10. 9:20am. Not an isolationist Bernie Sanders socialist, but I agree. I would love the U.S. to stop funding Europe and call in the monies owed.

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    1. So do the Russians. These are very dark days for America.

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    2. 10:13, tell us why you want to cede the Baltic states to Putin?

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  11. Impeached is just another word. Billy Clinton got impeached and continued to live in the big house and act as your commander and chief, so what! Monica was over 18, so what! No one seems to enforce the laws...

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    1. Trump is a slut

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    2. Clinton and trump both liars. Like Nixon. All should be impeached.

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    3. 2 down and 1 to go.

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    4. 12:20, how do impeach someone who is not in office?

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  12. 9:08, Not old wars, I'm worried about new wars. Just to give you something to think about, it's not about bombing maybe it's about the chemical wars.

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    1. The neocons are still looking for them in Iraq...

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    2. They're right next to the pile of yellowcake.

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  13. 11:28am. Ahh, "we" are still at war...
    Ahh, the Syria President is continuing it's chemical killings and gassing and slaughter.
    Thank a Soldier, maybe pick up his/her lunch tab if she/he is out on leave. "You" might "feel" better about "yourself". Have a good Memorial day.

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  14. Dear God in heaven, help us stop all war.

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    1. There is no god, sorry.

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    2. Well, there is no God to you, 10:27. That doesn't mean that God doesn't exist, just because you think so.

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    3. What is the last word anyone would say right after their car drives off a cliff?

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  15. I'm alive and free, I'm having a good Memorial Day.

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  16. Congress hasn't declared war on Syria. Trump is bombing civilians there though.

    Real citizens paying the ultimate price stopping hate crimes in Portland. Remember the real good guys on this days.

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  17. Make a sacrifice today for your fellow Americans who have fallen:

    https://news.google.com/news/amp?caurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kgw.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fgofundme-page-for-stabbing-victims-raises-more-than-100k-in-less-than-24-hours%2F443647785#pt0-226425

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  18. Surviving battle has to be a profound experience most of us will never understand. Losing a loved one to battle is an unfathomable grief. Wounds that will never heal. But year after year we add to that terror and grief. I just wish Peace for the world

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  19. 1:04pm. Freewill. God has nothing to do with war. It's man's inhumanity to man.

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    1. God has nothing to do with man?

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    2. God is dead. Alt facts live.

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  20. Time for Head on a stick campaign gathering, just like Kathy has professed.

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